2026 Housing Forecast Summary

The REALTORS Association of Edmonton recently held its annual housing forecast, giving us insights into what to expect in the Greater Edmonton area housing market in 2026. The consensus for the day was that Edmonton’s real estate market is entering a new phase — one defined less by rapid price acceleration and more by steady demand, balanced conditions, and the supportive backdrop of Alberta’s broader economic trends.

Troy Paquette, the Association's Chair-Elect, started the day off by looking back at 2025, which marked a year of recalibration for the Greater Edmonton real estate market. Activity cooled from the extraordinary highs of the post-pandemic period as migration slowed, inventory began to rise, and economic uncertainty tempered buyer demand. Despite fewer sales, supply remained tight relative to long-term norms and prices increased, reflecting underlying resilience across key property types. Rather than a boom or a downturn, 2025 was a return to balance — setting the stage for a more stable, sustainable market as Edmonton moves into 2026.

One point of interest to me was the top-selling neighbourhoods in 2025; the neighbourhoods with the most single detached sales were all newer communities on the outer edges of the city - Keswick, Chappelle, Edgmont, Secord and Summerside. Meanwhile, the neighbourhoods with the most condo sales were more centrally located: Wîhkwêntôwin (Formerly Oliver), Downtown, Rutherford, South Terwillegar, and Garneau.

Siddhartha Bhattacharya, Senior Economist at ATB Financial, shared great insight into the province's economic outlook, which I've summarized below.  

Alberta's Economy

Job growth in Alberta leads the country, but our growing population has driven the unemployment rate higher. 

• The Alberta economy is forecast to continue growing in 2026 at roughly 2.1% — outpacing Canada’s overall growth rate.
• Trade uncertainty and cost-of-living pressures remain, but energy production and diversification into tech and other sectors support longer-term economic resilience and continued job growth. 
• While population growth is easing from recent peaks, it continues to create demand for housing.

A growing economy and population are crucial for housing demand, especially in a market like Edmonton, where affordability draws buyers from within and outside Alberta.

A Balanced and Stabilizing Housing Market

ATB’s real estate team points to a transition from an overheated market into one of balance and stabilization in 2026:

• After record levels of housing starts and population-driven demand in 2025, the pace of new construction is expected to slow — but remain above long-term averages.
• Continued construction, particularly of multi-unit developments, will ease inventory pressures and support a more balanced supply-demand dynamic.
• Alberta’s affordability edge, which is historically stronger than the national average, continues to attract buyers and support steady buying activity.

For Edmonton, this means less frenzied competition, more predictable pricing trends, and room for both buyers and sellers to make thoughtful, strategic decisions.

Edmonton’s Local Market Trends

Recent regional data supports the notion of a maturing market:

• Average home prices in the Edmonton area rose modestly into late 2025, with benchmark prices up year-over-year but showing signs of stabilization.
• Inventory levels suggest conditions are trending toward a balanced market, giving buyers more choice and reducing overheating conditions.
• Local forecasts also suggest modest price growth in 2026, without the dramatic surges seen in previous years, and balanced activity that benefits both buyers and sellers alike.

Bhattacharya cautioned that we are in wildly uncertain economic times, adding more uncertainty into their forecasts. He added that they expect the Bank of Canda to hold the overnight rate where it is for the rest of the year. 

Taylor Pardy, Lead Economist, Prairies and Territories CMHC, added that Edmonton saw full-time job growth of 6.2% in 2025, which is very good. CMHSC is cautiously optimistic about the housing market in Edmonton. After a record year, housing starts are expected to remain strong but moderate. 

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers in Edmonton

For Buyers

Affordability remains a strong advantage compared to markets like Vancouver and Toronto — Edmonton’s relative price stability makes it especially attractive for first-time homeowners. Balanced conditions and slowing sales rates can create negotiating power, while stable economic fundamentals encourage long-term purchasing decisions.

For Sellers

Steady demand from population growth and economic activity supports a consistent pool of potential buyers. Realistic pricing strategies will be key in a market moving away from rapid price hikes toward sustainable value growth.

For Investors

A predictable, balanced market can be ideal for long-term investment returns and rental demand, especially as Edmonton continues to attract residents seeking affordability and opportunity.

In Summary

2026 is shaping up to be a year of healthy balance for Edmonton’s real estate market — anchored by a resilient provincial economy, ongoing population growth, and a shift from overheated conditions to sustainable fundamentals. Rather than volatile swings, we expect:

✅ Moderate home price growth
✅ Balanced supply and demand
✅ Increased choice for buyers

Whether you’re planning to buy, sell, or invest, Edmonton’s 2026 market offers stability with opportunity — a welcome evolution in Alberta’s housing landscape.