So far we're up around 3% YoY, with sales way up too ans listings down. Looks like a hot start to the year!Posted by Tom on Thursday, February 9th, 2017 at 8:41pm
Where's this crash people were speaking of?Posted by AMc on Thursday, February 9th, 2017 at 8:53pm
The crash happened. Prices are still below where they peaked in mid-2007, when interest rates were near 5%. That's a decade ago. My calcs say that's 16% worth of loss when inflation is considered.
It'll be another year of steady as she goes. Continued weakness in the $650k+ market. Stability in the lower price ranges. Immigration and babies increasing population and household formation. Slow recovery in job market. But barring another oil crash or a trade war, 2016 will go down as the year we found bottom, and 2017 the year that we stood back up on our feet, even if we don't start climbing again.
The crash?? Oh it's on it's way. Just keep your eyes on the Global Markets.Posted by Rick on Thursday, February 9th, 2017 at 10:34pm
Hi Sara- are you moving to a moderated comment section?Posted by Trev on Friday, February 10th, 2017 at 4:02am
Just asking because I got a response to that effect when I first tried to post a comment. Then it never showed up. Just an FYI :)Posted by Trev on Friday, February 10th, 2017 at 4:03am
Reading too many tea leaves are we? Your prophetic statements that the crash is coming, including those of others, still haven't come true. Whether it is the NDPs fault or the crash of oil or whatever that is the supposed root cause; still it has not "crashed". Until it does crash please stop riling false expectations.Posted by 123kid on Saturday, February 11th, 2017 at 3:04am
If you buy anywhere near the GTA you're 100 percent certain to lose your shirt. The only safe cities are Peterborough (at the low end), Lindsay (at the extreme low end) Woodstock and Belleville. Belleville presently would be without a doubt the best place to buy residential real estate. Fort Erie or Windsor are bad places to buy right now. The mil rate or property taxes are higher than normal in Belleville but the chances of losing money are very, very slim.Posted by Tony on Saturday, February 11th, 2017 at 8:24pm
Alberta prices will go nowhere but straight down if they keep on increasing the property taxes at 3 to 4 times the inflation rate each year. The City of Edmonton never figured it out but maybe some year they will.Posted by Tony on Saturday, February 11th, 2017 at 8:31pm
Anecdotal story about RE cycles and market timing:
I worked with a truck-driver named Jay back in 2001-2007. Around 2001-2002, Jay became convinced that Edmonton house values were way under-valued compared to 1. Other metro markets in Canada 2. The average household's purchasing power and 3. The cash-flow available in rental properties. For the next two-three years, Jay went obsessively all-in on RE: he got his RE Agent license (but not to become a realtor; he had a friend who owned a brokerage, and wanted access to the Realtors side of listing info for himself, and the friend couldn't allow him this without a license) in order to get immediate, full access to listing info. Over a few short years, he acquired a $2.5M portfolio of property through any means possible: He had talked his relatives and in-laws into losing him down payment money, and even co-signing loans in many cases. He'd no sooner get a tenant in place on one property before he was using the lease agreement as collateral on the next. I can remember him talking about occasionally creating falsified leases in order to show zero vacancy and higher lease income in order to be able to re-finance existing properties to 100% of value in order to get enough money to go buy the next. He wore a headset while he drove, and was on the phone the entire day during his shift talking to banks, brokers, tenants, etc. He was earned $60k driving truck with three kids and a stay-at-home wife, yet was able to buy millions in property. He eventually focussed his efforts on multi-family rentals like 8-plexes, which he said he bought because the were full accessibility and he liked disabled tenants with government support because they received steady income from the government. Anyway, people where I worked thought he was nuts- millions in debt, $60 in income, probably leveraged at something like 90-95%, some months struggling to make cash flow. And this was during the boring and stable early 2000s when your average SFH was $140k. But Jay was CONVINCED that Edmonton was significantly under valued and that "worker bees" (a term that he used to describe every pay check earning person) who wanted to "save themselves rich" and never would could laugh at him all they wanted because he would have the last laugh. I was in university at the time and he directed his lunch-room sermons at me often.
I remember coming back to work for another season after school let out in spring 2007 and asking Jay how his portfolio was doing. I distinctly remember him telling me that he'd sold everything and cashed out save for one 8-plex that was particularly cash-flow profitable. Told me that the price of houses had topped out because "Joe and Jane six pack" were now tapped out for borrowing power because of the 150% rise in prices over the preceding two years. That was Jay's last year driving truck; he'd cashed out a multi-millionaire with an 8-plex to provide him with income and started his own small property management biz. And house prices crashed 20% that summer.
That's a true story- none of it made up or embellished, and although I can't confirm the totally accuracy of everything Jay said, anecdotally I have no reason not to believe it.
It had a life-long impression on me- question the status-quo, don't be just a worker-bee, take risks if you sensed there's opportunity, and know when to get the heck out of a position. You could argue Jay got lucky with his timing, and maybe he did, but it worked out exactly the way he said it would.
That said, the same opportunities don't exist in RE today (at least not in any Canadian markets I'm familiar with) as they did back then. But I can't help but think what Jay used to say about Edmonton house values vs other Canadian cities, and compared to purchasing power, and wonder if there's not opportunity coming again- over the last decade, prices haven't moved, while wages have gone up and interest rates have gone down, ant the cost to buy a house in Toronto and Vancouver have gone into the stratosphere. The only piece missing is the cash-flow part- tough to buy a place right now and make the rental cover the mortgage, maintenance, property taxes, insurance, vacancy, etc.
Just thought I'd share.
The first time you comment I have to approve it, then as long as you only post one link at a time your comments should go up automatically. I will remove or edit if they're inappropriate.... Will follow same rules say the new host. I see now why your other comment didn't get posted, you misspelled your email address so it counted you as a new commenter.Posted by Sara MacLennan on Sunday, February 12th, 2017 at 3:36am
That's the feeling I got because I was researching different cycles across Canada and yes since 2007 the price in Alberta hasn't gone up so the next decade should bring some price appreciation I guess.
Actually I started to change my strategy which was to invest in Ontario lately but now even though 2017 could be a hot year again over there what's worrying me is what might follow so I'm now reconsidering investing in Alberta but it's gonna take me a few weeks of research to decide whether I go for Edmonton or Calgary.
And since I'm thinking about buying two smaller properties instead of one big one I might still end up buying one in Alberta and another one in a smaller city than Toronto in Ontario to mitigate and spread the risk.
I'm also thinking about fixer uppers and hold which might save me some money but I will hire contractors to do the job for me so I'm not sure if I could still save money but it's worth considering.
Wave of the future for Edmonton apartments and townhouses. Do something creative and try to stay in "your" house a long as possible before handing the keys over to the bank/banks. Note the buyer at any price takes over all the liabilities to the creditors meaning if he paid one dollar he'd still be on the hook for far more than the property is worth. At the same time the seller gets to stay in the house for much longer with a bogus for sale ad and if he could actually con some nitwit into buying it he never has to declare personal bankruptcy.
Mike property values went down about 20% in the eighties over a three year period. This is not to say the price will drop now but using the word never is irresponsible. Nothing is impossible it all depends on policies that affect supply and demand. The values didn't go down this time in the last two years due in part to the BOC dropping the interest rate and the already existing loose mortgage rules and the projects like the new arena that provided some relief among other reasons but otherwise they would have dropped more then they did.Posted by Wally on Wednesday, February 15th, 2017 at 2:26am
Property values will never crash in the Edmonton. People are rich here and can afford any price any home is listed at. Richie rich. Who cares about oil price and what not.Posted by Mike on Wednesday, February 15th, 2017 at 4:29am
The Toronto Real Estate Board changed their published Home Price Index figures! On February 3rd, they reported the composite fell from 227.7 to 226.1 On February 14 they changed the published (February 3rd) figures to show an increase to 231.0 Seems odd (or fraudulent) that they didn’t report it as a revision. Just arbitrarily changing a price decrease to another increase.
mls home price index