Weekly Market Update, Aug. 25/17

We need to buy ASAP as we might miss the boat. Prices about to rocket up!!

I just bought an investment pre-sale Sky Condo this week above the Stantec Building. The sales centre was so packed I could barely move. The only thing I didn’t like was that parking is $75,000, and only available for purchase for units priced at $470K or above. Though I think parking is required if I choose to rent it out in 2019 (rather than flip is for a big profit). I ended up buying a 570 square foot condo on a higher floor (in order to get it to the $470K threshold), and then added parking. Altogether it’ll come up to around $570K, including GST. They said they’re going fast, so for the people interested, I would say to buy quickly.

What I'm keeping an eye on also is what's coming in the next few months like the increasing interest rate and the new proposed stress test and how they're gonna impact the market.

Tom,
You got a good deal buddy. 500k for 570sqft. Awesome. People should buy ASAP as they will go fast due to Amenities. Big homeless shelter is only 2 blocks away, and with view of Baccart Casino with its amazing Bellagio Las Vegas style daily light shows and fountains - that place got a charm in it..

The Baccarat will actually be torn down for another condo before this is done. Also, these prices are in line with what's being built in Southern California around LA Live (the model that the Ice District is based on).

How much it should rent for? And how much are the condo fees?

Condo fees are $0.56 a square foot, not bad considering the amenities. I've created some spreadsheets on rental rates. It really depends on how tight the rental market is. Hopefully $3,000 to break even on cash flow. I'm hoping that since it's a large one bedroom (there are smaller ones in the 400 square foot range), I'll get that. If not, I'll just flip it once it's built.

Tom, are you renting to retired millionaires? Just curious who's renting $3000/month 1 bedroom condo.

Only in Edmonton would they build something with zero demand for commercial and zero demand for residential real estate. I guess it will just sit empty with the lights off like you see in those ghost towns in China when they finally finish it or maybe they'll just give up and try to sell the land off.

Tony, there's huge demand! The Legends condos above the five star JW Marriott sold out so quickly, and judging by the rush at the sales centre for Sky, so will this. And after that there's many more luxury condos being planned around the Ice District that will go on sale as soon as Sky sells out, and some very tall office towers being planned as well. In 10 years downtown Edmonton will soon be a city of skyscrapers that few cities will rival. I've seen the renderings, Toronto will soon have very little on Edmonton, at least in terms of skyscrapers being developed.

Sky seems to have mostly investors buying in I was told. I was also told by the develooment company that the intent of the larger one bedrooms like mine with parking, along with the two bedrooms units that will go for $5k+ a month, will likely be rented to corporate executives who can impress clients with its direct access to Rogers Place. While the smaller one bedrooms without parking will be rented to students and fresh grads who will bike everywhere.

Where's the sales centre?

To the left of the casino entrance at Rogers.

Thanks Tom I needed a laugh it will be while until that situation is a reality again

Pretty sure Tom is being sarcastic y'all. In fact I give it a 99pct probability. 1pct chance he's Kim Jong crazy and off his meds. Tom- take yourself into the hospital, tell them what you told us here, they'll help you get better.

It could be decades before Edmonton housing finally breaks the old record high way back in the Spring of 2007.

I'm waiting for the "kidding!!!" part still Tom...Tom???

Pray for him....

Tom,

You have to be joking, right? 3k a month rent for 570 sq ft condo. You may get that with air bnb during hockey season. I'd imagine competition would be fierce, if you say if the building will primarily be owned by investors. Risky investment for little reward.

Why am I crazy? Go to the presentation centre yourself, it's georgeous. I went to the Oilers season ticket holders pre-sale condo info session. They said that real estate is the only investment where people pay it off for you, and they gave those two demographics as examples of who you would rent to.

I agree, it's ambitious, so I'll probably end up flipping it. Although even cash flow negative investment properties can be profitable as you're still paying off equity, and it'll likely appreciate.

I agree with you Tom that you still pay down your mortgage and the property will appreciate but if you could buy another type of property with the same amount of money and that will pay down your mortgage and has the potential to almost appreciate equally over time and is producing more cash flow, wouldn't you rather go for that other type of property like for example a single house or some other type?

Also how much profit are you expecting for the flip in 2019?

I assume you joking using the LA condo's as a price reference?

It make sense Tom bought ICE district since it's most popular location. There's a couple of property for rent on rentfast.com, it didn't reach $3000/month, although it maybe smaller ones.
The return will be better than Vancouver and Toronto anyway, those are really crazy.

I'm not joking. It's about the same price per square foot as the condos above the Ritz Carlton in LA around the Staples Centre.

My contract is about $1,000 per square foot, and this one is JUST over $1,000 a square foot in the Ritz.

http://www.theloftexchange.com/downtown-la-lofts-condos-for-sale?lk=300192067108

It's comparable in that they're both premier North American cities building around a fancy arena. In fact, Edmonton's average income is higher than LAs, so in terms of affordability, Edmonton's is a better deal IMO.

To all the people questioning whether buying into the Ice District is a good idea, remember that Sky will sell out soon, and that there are a lot of very smart rich people buying in. And these people didn't make their money by making poor investments. IMO five years from now everyone will be looking back wishing they had bought one when the prices go up once they're actually built and the units are move in ready.

How much appreciation do you predict in 10 years for the sky condos?

I predict the condo fees will appreciate substantially in 10 years

It's a good time to buy or not buy, depends on if you have other better investment options. People are just very negative about invest in any other business in Canada.

It's really a question, why people comes to Canada. Most people come rich and end poor. There may be one day people weak up from their dreams.

I agree Tom. $75000 parking lot is equivalent to Southern California, and very reasonable. With global warming, we will be SoCal in 5 years with wineries and almond trees all around us. Sea World has plans to open in Edmonton and we are Disney's next destination. Time to invest in Edmonton. $75000 parking lot will seem peanuts in couple of years. Buy, Buy!!

If you're after price appreciation versus cash flow, I believe there is a case to be made over the long term, but I think the condo market has been over built, so it will be extremely competitive. I thought this report was a good read; How Does A Stadium Impact Real Estate Values? Ihttp://info.reincanada.com/stadium-report

75K for parking lot is unreal, across homeless shelter is 3 times unreal. Between Calgary and Edmonton there are over 30K brand new empty and for sale condo's and homes. Tom, please, see the doctor as soon as you can. We will pray for you Bud.

Sky Condos may appreciate 1-2%, but condo fee increases can dampen any appreciation. You don't own land with a condo purchase, so you don't have the luxury of land appreciation. I think Edmonton is a great place to invest, but I don't believe the value is in brand new condos.
I recommend getting some feedback from a real estate investment professional (that has assets in Edmonton), crunch the numbers (are they realistic) and review your plan.

Comparing LA to Edmonton is absolute comedy gold. When will Edmonton get it's own Rodeo Drive, Hollywood sign, Sea World, Bay watch TV show etc?

They are related Tom. Is Edmonton a destination city like LA? Destination city equals demand for property. Didn't Gretzky choose LA over Edmonton??

Well, people are paying it and prices are increasing downtown around the arena.

I guess companies like Robert Kiyosaki's were the force driving Canadian housing market crazy, just like what they did in USA.

Yes Tom they are paying it. Ergo, your new $570k condo is worth just that- $570k. It can command that because of the amenities- $1000/ft2 is a lot of cake, but obviously worth it to some. Not gonna lie- if I was young and single with money to burn, perched atop the Stantec tower with the best gin joints in Edmonton within a few blocks is where I'd want to be too. So you might be onto something. My worry though is the demand is fairly niche, and there's no shortage of similar developments in the area, with slightly worse locations, that are on the market for way less money. And there's lots more to come, and it doesn't cost $1000/ft to develop the land and build em. The price of your condo will be directly tied to the Oilers' performance- hope that Connor kid stays healthy and it might pay off for you. Hope it does actually, best of luck. I just don't see it personally- condos are great in tight markets with rapid appreciation and a shortage of supply. That is the complete opposite of what's happening in Edmonton right now. Now, if you want a cash flow positive condo I'll sell you one. Three blocks from Rogers, same size as yours, $1,700/month rent. Looks over the river and the hotel mac. LRT in the basement. Corner unit, tons of windows. Make an offer :)

Haha. I meant in terms of condo prices for downtown.

The only thing Edmonton will get is more food banks.

I'm originally from Edmonton, now in Victoria. I'm searching for a blog on Edmonton real estate with objective stats and prospectives, and also some objective comments to go along with it. Have I come to the place? I scan the comment section and see lots of comments saying "buy now or forever be priced out!". Sounds like RE agents pumping a deflating market. Or are people just being sarcastic?

I'm afraid that's sarcasm ;)
Although ATB did declare the recession over today: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-recession-over-atb-jobs-economy-oil-gas-1.4269136

Hey All,
SKY prices are out of reach for some for sure!!

Legends are a much better deal back when it was for sale.

Let me know if anyone wants a legends unit (I have a few that I can sell)

Thanks,

Leslie

Sara maintains the best RE blog in Edmonton. Accurate and transparent stats, thoughtful and careful comment, no smoke or mirrors. A few years ago when the RE board changed the way sales were reported, she was quick to point out how sales were recorded differently and how it might effect monthly stats. This is a solid, honest blog.

The comments section is a comments section- take it for what it's worth. There's certainly some experienced retail RE investors that post here, a few opinionated observers, the odd troll, and everything in between. Overall though, I enjoy the comments section- both bulls and bears represented.

Wow. That's exactly what I'm trying to do. Thanks, Trev :)

Buy now or forever be priced out!

Are you surprised to hear that!? What would you expect a salesperson in general to tell you? Would they tell to wait and see? Ok now I assume you know the answer.

In the last two years I've seen about 15 realtors in Alberta, Ontario and Quebec and of the 15 there were only 2 who were honest and transparent with me. The rest were not bad but not great either.

Unfortunately there are no true buyers' representatives. Almost the majority work for sellers. This means for you as a buyer you have to do a lot of homework so you don't get *******! It's sad though.