Weekly Market Update, August 16/19

Here is our update on the Edmonton real estate market. (Previous week’s numbers are in brackets). For the past 7 days: New Listings: 549 (497, 488, 495) # Sales: 276 (295, 302, 283) Ratio: 50% (88%, 62%, 57%) # Price Changes: 441 (383, 420, 471) Expired/Off-Market Listings: 282 (232, 465, 190) Net loss/gain in listings this week: -9 (-171, -279, 22, -8) Active single-family home listings: 4202 (4226, 4179, 4325) Active condo listings: 2425 (2413, 2399, 2509) Homes 4-week running average: $431k ($429k, $426k, $420k) Condos 4-week running average: $ 225k ($217k, $215k, $213k) So, last week there was an error in the numbers, I'm sorry to report the sales were not "off the chart" last week. Very sorry if I got anyone's hopes up. We have noticed a change in the market that I'd like to share. The absorption rate (expressed as months of inventory) dropped below the previous year's level in April for the first time, in a long time. In July, the rate dropped below the previous three years! We saw an increase in sales in July compared to June in Edmonton and nationally, which is not the norm. I don't have proof for why this has occurred, but I do have a theory... When the stress test was implemented, it caused a lot of buyers to hold off buying, because they could no longer afford the home they wanted to buy. It's been about a year and a half since the stress test was implemented, and during that time many of those buyers have increased their savings, prices came down a bit, and interest rates have stayed low; they can now, again, afford the home they want to buy. Well presented and well priced entry-level homes are already getting multiple offers; it will be interesting to see what happens in September when the Federal home buyer incentives kick in.

Have a great weekend! Posted by Liv Real Estate on August 16th, 2019

If the US keeps lowering their interest rates then Canada will have no choice but to lower theirs as well. Otherwise our dollar will be too strong which will kill our export economy.

So if rates drop again, which I suspect will happen, combined with the free money giveaway by Trudeau just before the election (coincidentally) for buying a house, demand for house prices should continue upward.

Posted by GM on Thursday, August 15th, 2019 at 11:57pm

Re: I don’t have proof for why this has occurred, but I do have a theory…

Your theory is secondary the the real reason which is the "chase for yield".
Firstly the most overvalued U.S. stock market since the year 1873, 146 years ago.
Secondly investors know the monkey-hammer will come down on both gold and silver starting around May 2020 when Trump lies about everything and all the data comes out showing America is in the biggest boom since the roaring 1920's thus pushing gold back down to the $1,200 mark even U.S. by late September 2020. Like I said the chase for yield.

Posted by Tony on Friday, August 16th, 2019 at 7:43am

Weekly Market Update, August 16/19

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