Weekly Market Update, Dec. 9/16

This year's average price is almost identical to that of last year, only delayed by 6 weeks.

avg price is a misleading number to rely on. Median isn't good either. I trust more the price/sqf.
On another note I think the price of new builds is going to go up with the new rules/regulations for the building code that started Nov. If it costs more to build it will mean fewer new houses and/or more expensive new houses. It can only have upward pressure on the prices.

I trust Teranet House Price Index by Nation Bank.
Edmonton went down 0.9% over last year.

Condo running average price graph does not seem to match $246k. Perhaps the price dropped to $236k?

The falling standard of living in Canada since the 1980, 1981 recession. Home prices are supposed to fall with the falling standard of living not rise relative to the inflation rate.

I trust mls that shows Edmonton property prices are down 10 to 15 percent from the October 2014 peak. Calgary is down about twice what Edmonton is down or 20 to 24 percent from the October 2014 peak. Edmonton has a vacancy rate of 21 percent and Calgary has a vacancy rate of 37 percent. Both rates are increasing which will decrease the price of residential real estate.

I'll take a real dollar wager that it doesn't fall as much as you're predicting. We can determine the benchmark if anyone wants to take the bet :)

Let's say supper for four at Character's fine dining, paid for by the loser. Takers?

I trust CMHC... a wealth of PDF statistics and information for all major urban centers across Canada
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/hoficlincl/homain/stda/

PDF - Housing starts are down 43% year over year in Edmonton
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64695/64695_2016_M12.pdf?fr=1481370554339

PDF - Unabsorbed Multiple Dwelling Units, Homeowner and Condo up over 50%
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/61504/61504_2016_M11.pdf?fr=1481370940416

Look at the junk on the market and you will see that even with 10 percent drop a large majority of listings will not sell. Many Realtors are happy to get a listing and just price the property at what the seller wants. Good listings by good relators priced properly will sell "AND DO". Look at how many listings still have pictures with green grass??? So many people either fishing or maybe have home equity lines and can not sell without getting top dollar. This time of year with this much inventory prices should be falling. All I see is 10K reductions on houses that are priced way to high in the first place.

My prediction is in two years you will see the avg price in Edmonton 15% less than what it is today.

This is will be due to higher lending rates and anemic economic growth.

Now that would be an interesting dinner!

Yep, that was a typo. Thanks for pointing it out, I've edited it.

I think you are quite realistic there Brendan. My estimates are around 8-10% in next 3-4 months, and after that it will be another 5-7% in the 12-18 months.

But guys the oil price started to go up so how come are you predicting such price decreases

Keep dreaming. We've definitely hit the bottom, Alberta is supposed to lead the country economically next year.

Agreed. And they'll keep renting, hoping for a drop one day as prices start recovering in 2017.

http://www.lpmimgmt.com/rentals.html

31 properties for rent and 29 of them say today. That's the worst I've ever seen. That certainly doesn't bode well for prices if nothing rents out.

Take a look here:

http://www.lpmimgmt.com/rentals.html

31 properties listed for rent and 29 of them say "today". You tell me how prices are going to rise when you see something like that?

I don't know if the prices will go down 5, 10 or 15%... My question is who is going to buy the properties over 700k... With the new mortgage rules, interest going up and stagnant income it will take 5-10 years in that market to clear the inventory...

Keep on running your mouth, Mr. EdmontonHasLowerUnemploymenThanCanada. You are here, and I will still be here, let us talk in spring and summer 2017.

The conversation would be amazing!

Love the predictions. Almost seemingly prophetic. No one call tell how far by how much it will rise or fall because the "prices" are heavily distorted and manipulated. People here are tea leaf readers making outlandish claims.

We are just having a bit of fun. Of course we can't tell the future.

But I think my prediction of a 15% drop over the next two years is reasonable. With the tighter lending regs, higher rates and a weak employment market.

MLS is a property listing service, not a price gauge of any kind.

My prediction is that anyone predicting > 10% drop is a renter.

No need to get your panties in a bunch. I don't live in Canada and have no plans on returning so I don't give a cr*p one way or another what the prices do. I just find it interesting to watch and prognosticate on what may happen in the future due to the economic and political forces currently taking shape.

Still having trouble with facts, I see? It's hard to understand that oil is going back up, and we've more than likely hit the low in terms of unemployment and housing prices.

Update on the bonds due to the interest increase in US.. plus 3 more in 2017... ups....

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/canadian-bonds/

Question: who is going to buy the properties over 700k?
Answer: people richer than you.

:) Not too many in Edmonton