Weekly Market Update, December, 11/20

For anyone thinking about the need to sell if you have a condo or investment, you may wish to think twice at the present time. I know these values may not last, but the futures for lumber is showing a very sharp trend upwards at the moment. The LBS ticker futures for lumber hit a low of 296 in March during the pandemic, Now it its 790, which is 2-3 times higher than it ever was gong back at least a decade! Maybe its overdone this rally. But coupled with the lowest interest rates in history and a vaccine soon in the pipeline, I feel we could be in for a major upwards correction. Maybe not next month, but perhaps next year things will be looking much better.

The main point is the destruction of the U.S. dollar which will send inflation and oil prices sharply higher.

Long time lurker here! Thanks so much for the info. Does anymore have any stats or links in differences in investment in buying a home used or from a builder(new)? I ask because I remember reading pre 2007 differences in apples to apples homes a decade old vs new and there was a about $30000 premium if you wanted new. about 7 or 8 years ago the difference was over $100000. It seems that if you had to build and then sell within a few years in many cases you would lose money. Is this a fair assumption given you can keep variables (location, size of home....) similar?

Any new build right now costs much more than what you can pick up on the market. It is not economical to build anymore unless prices go higher.

Hey Coach,
Thanks for joining the discussion. Yes, I think your assumption is now more true than ever. The pricing gap between new and resale is increasing, because the cost of lumber, concrete, drywall, appliances (think furnaces and hot water tanks) and other building materials have all risen sharply during COVID-19. Don't forget you have to add landscaping costs and things like window coverings to a new home whereas you can at least live with whatever comes with resale and update/upgrade as you choose. I'm worried about local home builders because their costs are on the rise, and demand is decreasing (our population decreased through negative net migration in Q2 for the first time since the 90s).

I agree, most builders have had to increase prices recently due to higher material costs so the gap between new and resale is getting bigger.

The cost of real estate is affected by supply and demand. I expect supply will be increasing in the new year, partly because as mortgage deferrals run out we will see an increase in foreclosures. We also have high unemployment and our population is decreasing leading to lower demand. Yes, the cost of building is on the rise, but buyers will see more value in resale if the gap in pricing between new and resale gets too big.

I don't feel sorry for builders. They are the ones who constantly- every year make too much supply. They have never let demand catch up in the past 10 years and when they easily could have.

Your right Sarah supply and demand is probably the more important part of the equation. Well Canada has high immigration targets and if and when oil comes back as its stated to come back with the return to normalcy, that could drive job growth once again and maybe real estate will stay even or even appreciate mildly.

I know its a week old but I just came back today to catch up on the discussion. If Sarah can answer this, what's the temperament on the street per say? People confident? People gun shy about buying, selling etc? We have CMHC giving dire predictions when stimulus runs dry, Some banks are saying things should be fine. Some realtor agencys disagree and believe we could see some price improvements. Your thoughts?

The gap between new and resale might be the highest in the entire world in Edmonton not just in Canada. Not to mention is costs about 3 times more to rent than to own in Edmonton.