Weekly Market Update Jul.16/21

Edmonton will soon pass Calgary in both population and economic output in Alberta.

Edmonton has attracted more and better IT jobs from 2015 to 2020, despite the last 1 1/2 years of that period being lived under the UCP - United Calgary Party - government in the province, doing everything to send jobs down there and screw us over.
We have attracted more talents in AI, Robotics and Cloud Services than any other comparable city in North America (with the U of A being ranked top 3 in the world for AI and Google Deep Mind expansion in the city, that's no surprise.

The world will move away from fossil fuels fast in the next 30 years or so. We'll NEVER see a big oil boom again - maybe a few small, short-lived ones in the next decade or two, but nothing like the big money makers of the past. This means we need to diversify the economy and move towards where the money is: IT and its many facets, especially Software Development, Cloud Services, Artificial Intelligence, Robotics... Not to mention new and/or cleaner energy (see the massive hydrogen plant investment coming to the city), 3D printing construction (especially for affordable housing and less environmental impact). It is WAY past time Edmonton freed itself from being ONLY an O&G city and started preparing to have a more modern, integrated to the world economy, not unlike other cities with similar profile (think Austin, TX, for example).

That recent CBRE report shows is that Edmonton is particularly well positioned to do so and, even with politics against us, overtake Calgary as Alberta's main economic driver and premier investment destination: we have a better IT workforce, a MUCH better university, lower cost of living and MUCH more space to diversify.

The chance of Edmonton surpassing Calgary in terms of population and economic growth is somewhere between zero and nil.
Calgary has the most corporate head offices west of Toronto. Edmonton does not have a big base of corporate head offices.
Calgary is located geographically next to the mountains, unfortunately there is nothing Edmonton can do about that.
In terms of attracting IT and technology, Calgary is ahead of Edmonton, as shown in a recent report, but both cities are trending in the right direction.
And most importantly, Calgary has a real International Airport, with direct flights to International locations, Edmonton does not, thanks to previous mayor Jan Reimer who was anti business and almost destroyed the Edmonton International Airport.
Being a cheerleader for Edmonton doesn't change the facts.
Actually Calgary and Edmonton are both nice cities.

Our tech growth is faster than Calgary's, so we'll see. And yeah, Calgary has more corporate headquarters, but a lot of oil jobs, which is consolidating. Edmonton has government. If you believe population growth projections, we'll need to increase the size of government dramatically over the next ten years. Plus, the NDP is polling huge majority territory. I think you'll be surprised the hiring spree Notley goes on, considering these four years of Kenney are not great for government. Wouldn't be surprised to see government size increase by 50% between 2023 and 2027.

Let's face the facts.
Calgary is private company - based.
Edmonton is government - based.
We all know which one produces real economic output.
That said, Edmonton is a nice place. But Calgary weather is better, and is close to the mountains,
making Calgary a more desireable place to live.
Having more radar traps than any other North American city does not attract people.

Obviously if the health care system was revamped in Alberta ages ago the average home price would be at least $750,000 in both Calgary and Edmonton. The number one reason new immigrants to Canada don't come to Alberta is because of the health care system. It's the reason virtually all of them go to Ontario.

Yes, we all know which one produces real economic output, but oil stocks are struggling, there is little oil & gas capital spending planned, and oil company consolidation is hollowing out Calgary's downtown. I don't think that Calgary will create many new jobs over the next little while. On the other hand, Alberta is likely to have huge populations gains over the next ten years according to predictions, so the size of government is likely to soar along with these new Albertans, since a lore more services will be needed (eg. more policy folks, additional prisons, healthcare professionals, social services etc). Demand for government tends to increase proportionally to population size. That's tens of thousands of new government jobs, mostly in Edmonton, that will be needed soon.

Government jobs do not create prosperity. They use precious tax dollars and make it more expensive for real businesses to operate.

GM: Edmonton relies on the growth of government to fund its prosperity. We don't have many private sector companies headquartered here, so you should hope for more government if you care about the Edmonton economy.

Tom,

GM is right about government not doing too much, lots of wasteful spending. Private sector is what makes housing go, Amazon, Google, selling information or things to the world. That's is why Edmonton real estate market is one of the worst performing in Canada. "We don't have many private sector" , unless we start getting that, market is going to be stagnant, not dynamic.

John: We're not stagnant. We're seeing higher increases than Calgary has. We're on fire!

John is right.

Taking money from people (taxes) and using it to pay the wages of other people who produce nothing does not create prosperity.

You must create something that other people will want to buy if you want to create prosperity.
By Tom's logic, the more people that are on welfare the greater the economic growth will be.