Weekly Market Update Jul.9/21

Sara do you think we'll continue seeing price growth as we continue throughout the year, since the economy is so hot, and inflation (and presumably wages) are increases so quickly? Or do you think we'll have to wait until next Spring for our next leg up? I was reading that the average Canadian home is now $700K, with Toronto and Vancouver even higher. Sure we may not catch those two cities, but I think we could at least hit the Canadian average, if not a bit more, considering how high our wages are here, and how we're expected to lead Canada in economic growth over the next two years or more.

Hey Tom,
I expect prices will remain ahead of last year, but we should hit our peak pricing for this year soon. I don’t see Edmonton meeting the national average, I think one of the things that defines Albertans is our love for spending money on things other than our home… vacations, toys (RVs, quads, sleds etc), retail, restaurants, 50/50s (haha) and so on. Not being “house poor” is one of the benefits of living here. In addition, we have no shortage of space, which makes land cheap. If the cost of buying a home becomes out of line with building one in the burbs, then people will build further and further out in the burbs. The latest numbers show we’re building more homes than any market in Canada except Toronto right now - https://edmontonjournal.com/life/homes/edmonton-second-in-nation-for-single-family-home-starts. Adding all this supply will keep prices in check, especially since our population isn’t growing very quickly at the moment.

Thanks Sara! I wonder if the interprovincial migration away from expensive cities to Alberta will mean that people will take their home buying approach of maxing out their mortgage and buying the most expensive house with them? I have some friends in Hamilton who sold a property and with their income and their large down payment qualified for a home of $2.4 million. They didn't understand the question when I asked if they would consider buying a cheaper house than that!

So SFH's up $70,000 since January, or up 17.5%

Another 17% next year would bring it to $550,000.

GM: $550,000 sounds reasonable. We'd more or less have caught up with Calgary in that case (though not really because house prices in Calgary are also climbing). Edmonton and Calgary's salaries are pretty close to the same on average.

I was just reading on a Calgary real estate blog that the average SFD in Calgary is now $499K. So Edmonton is almost caught up! I suppose that makes sense, as government works in Edmonton have kept their jobs, and have not experienced any pay decreases. Whereas oil companies in Calgary and consolidating, meaning thousands of lost jobs, and pay cuts. This trend should accelerate in 2022 IMO.

Tom,

I'm not sure where you are getting stats, Calgary average price is $579k, sales, 2530 month. Edmonton sales 985, that's is terrible.

https://www.zolo.ca/calgary-real-estate/trends

https://www.zolo.ca/edmonton-real-estate/trends

Tom,

I totally agree sleeper town, but issue is when will it wake up?

I think it's starting to happen now. Edmonton is second in Canada for single family home construction. People are priced out of Toronto and Vancouver, and they're buying homes here, which should accelerate in the next few years with oil starting to boom. Plus we're expected to lead Canada this year and next. Edmonton will, I believe, become the second or third largest cities in Canada next to Toronto (and maybe Calgary) in ten years.

Edmonton is really a sleeper town for real estate investors. We're looking at close to 2 million population in 10 to 12 years. Keep in mind that Toronto is only 2.9 million, and the population is stagnant. I get excited just thinking about how we'll be one of the largest cities in Canada so soon. Calgary might be second largest at that point.

Edmonton the second largest city in Canada in 10 years?
I highly doubt that.

Plus, Edmonton is now the fastest growing tech hub in North America!

https://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/edmonton-ranks-fastest-growing-tech-sector-in-north-america-makes-cbres-top-50-list-for-the-first-time

Edmonton might be third, behind Toronto and Calgary. Though I think we'll surpass Calgary based on oil industry consolidation. Those are the government projections, at least, based on a lot of factors. We'll be a huge metropolis soon in 10 to 12 years according to experts. There are at least another dozen skyscrapers being planned for downtown as we speak, which should be confirmed soon.

Who is building these 12 new skyscrapers?
Are they going to be office towers or just more apartments?
It's a big difference.

Sorry condos. Some are being funded through the a city tax incentive grant to get more built. That covers seven, which should all be announced shortly. They have to start construction this year to get the city money.

There won’t be a dozen towers started next year. Take it from a guy who knows.

Edmonton is not projected by any experts to grow to 2M in ten years. In the Edmonton CMA? Sure, maybe, cause we’re at like 1.5M already I think. But metropolitan isn’t even a mill yet. So we’d need 2.5% annual growth for 12 years. And the GTA is 7M by comparison Tommy boy. Hemmed in by lakes and municipal planners that don’t like sprawl. Do the math: the cost to build a house is about $150/sq foot for a two story detached home. Cost has barely moved in 13 years, minus some ups and downs in material pricing that are normally fairly insignificant. So it’s $300k to build a 2000sq ft house with a double attached garage, has been forever. The only thing that drives up price is land demand. Look around Edmonton. See any major geographical impediments to growth? Until fort Saskatchewan touches highway 16, Spruce grove and stony plain stretch from Devon to Onoway, you can’t tell the difference between Leduc, Beaumont, and Ellerslie, and South Cooking Lake becomes the name of an urban area and not a place in strathcona county, we’re not running out of land. Even then, we just keep on going in every direction. As a result, lot prices will stay around $150-200k, and the only thing that will drive up is SFH in the core for those who need to be close to downtown or the university, hospitals, etc. but when I can buy a tear down in Mcaually for $150k still, I don’t think even that’s happening too quickly.

Love Edmonton. But let’s not get carried away here. Alberta is still experiencing net interprovincial out migration. People are leaving for better weather and non-oil jobs, and not flocking here for cheap housing. Yet

Tom,

So condos buildings. Nothing that will bring economic growth.

The big question is with Canada reopening and all the immigrants now priced completely out of the rental market in British Columbia and all of Ontario what's going to happen next? Will Trudeau funnel new immigrants in through other provinces? Immigrants only go where there's free health care so maybe North Bay, Ontario or some city at least 500 miles from Toronto will be their destination. With Alberta's health care system none on them will go to Alberta.