Weekly Market Update, July 14/17

There's also a proposal now to impose a stress test on uninsured mortgages as well . If it passes there's gonna be a real impact because investors and speculators are the ones driving up the market more crazily than regular home owners.

Real estate keeps going up why invest in stocks with the risk reward? That is why investors and speculators are in it. I always am told 'I invest in land rather than stocks because I do not understand stocks' I perfer stocks myself.

The U.S. stock market indexes are the most overvalued in history and with the rewriting of accounting rules and stock buybacks in theory the U.S. stock market indexes should drop double the '29 crash if/when the central bankers finally unload everything. I've been day trading since the mid 1980's and have basically been selling short since 2010. There's no surer way to lose "ALL" your money than to put it into stocks and hold for the long term.

It's supposed to be in by this September but Poloz won't raise interest rates this September. I'm sure we've already seen the last interest rate increase in America for the next several years minimum.

You've been selling short since 2010? I hope it wasn't Google, Amazon, Netflix, Tesla, or Nvidia!
If you had been long those instead, you would no longer have to daytrade. You'd be living in Hawaii.

Tony, c'mon man. Investing in a balanced and diversified portfolio has historically resulted in a decent return over time. Better than real estate over the long run actually, except real estate can be bought with a greater degree of leverage, and therefore a higher resultant cap rate.

If you've been shorting the market since 2010, no wonder you think financial assists are a guaranteed way to lose all your money. Day traders get slaughtered, always have, always will. There will always be a few lucky ones, but day trading isn't much different than gambling. Even money against the rest of the field if you're lucky, and the house (brokers) take a rake. Net losses long term. The market doubled since 2010. The best way to make money was to buy and hold a diversified portfolio and rebalance when necessary.

Anywho, we've seen your predictions on this blog. Last spring you were calling for the death of the CAD when is was at .77USD. Told you then that the best bet for its value in a year was .77. So far, it's up to .79. Hope you didn't short it.

I actually made big money by converting about CAD 400k when it was almost on par with the US dollar a few years ago and then I converted the money back from US dollar to CAD when it was .73 this year I'm very happy with the result.

Interest rates will fall and Canada and America will end up just like Japan. Endless decades of recession, of course America will lie and try to deny it but everyone in America knows what's going on.

I've got a big short on
Canlan Ice Sports Corp
TSE: ICE

I cover the 2 percent dividend.

I only short small cap stocks and buy deep out of the money puts on the major U.S. stock indexes each month.

People with little or low income are desperate depending on housing to support there expense,
The unequal of working opportunity created some of this housing craziness.

You see the famous comic an immigrant with doctor's degree go to an interview for dish-wash job. And the owner ask him: "Only one doctorate?"
The immigration policy just bring people here, and find their own way to get our of trouble. They're better off when they come here, many people end up living on renting or flipping houses.

GDP is too much emphasized as government success, sometimes it could causing over look of individuals.

Tony are you the same tony that complains on Turners blog that he missed the boat on real estate ? Just buy a place already so you can sleep at night and then you dont have to worry about it anymore

Tony everyone has a money spinning idea but yours sounds the least attractive. The stock market goes up and down. I agree there will be a correction but overall it will always go up. There is a guy in the US called Warren Buffet. He's been pretty successful investing long in stocks.

If I wanted to make money I would probably do the opposite of anything you said. Shorting the US market since 2010? It's tripled since 2008.

Yeah I'm the same Tony on Garth Turner's blog and "The Real Tony" on Zero Hedge". I'm also known as "The Real Tony" on Wolf Street. If you need money making strategies read my replies on Zero Hedge.

Only about 85 stocks push the market up, the rest do hardly anything, just get an index fund, if you do not want to think. I agree on the dot com assertion, there is no real break thru companies like there was during the PC age. Social media aka advertising companies do not count.

The U.S. stock market is still in a long term bear market dating back to the dot-com crash with lower lows than the March 09, 2009 low to follow.

The smart money has been selling stocks since 2009 as can be seen here:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-17/there-has-been-just-one-buyer-stocks-financial-crisis

Tony, maybe you should start a stock market blog since that seems to be what you are using this real estate blog for.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-us-stock-market-is-the-worlds-most-expensive-2017-07-18

Question for Sarah- how does your industry benchmark its overall market share vs non-mls sales (I.e. Builder direct new builds)?

Just wondering if if that ratio has changed with time, and if the new-home, non-mls segment is grabbing a higher/lower proportion of sales vs resale mls and new mls.

I happened to be reading an article last night in the Toronto star newspaper which says about Calgary that while the resale market is recovering the new build market is still struggling. The article didn't mention Edmonton but a friend of mine who was thinking about buying a house from a builder in Spruce grove told me a few days ago that they were still open to giving discounts.

Hey Trev, CMHC gathers some stats about new builds and does quarterly reports where they compare new builds to MLS sales. Next time a report comes out I'll post a link.