Weekly Market Update Jun. 25/21

Tom,
You could be right. Although Trudeau chased away some major oil companies with his policies.
Inflation is hot and could stay hot for a while. So even without a boom prices should go up.

Looking good with our continued rise. This Fall I think will be quite hot, as everyone I know has taken notice of oil prices, and how Alberta will be leading the country in economic growth. That means that they're looking to buy an investment property or two to cash in. Does anyone have any predictions on what Edmonton detached house prices will be on average in five years? It looks like we're entering another oil boom, as I was just reading that the Government of Alberta will get another $6 billion over estimates for oil royalties this year. That should mean higher government spending to boost the economy. Plus, inflation looks like it will run hot for at least the next couple years. We're at 4% annually now, though I think we'll settle just under 3% annually soon.

If we assume a 2.8% inflation rate over five years (higher at the start of this period, lower near the end), that would result in a price of $540,000 for an Edmonton detached on average. I'd say this is the floor, as it's technically not an increase as it's just keeping pace with inflation. We're around a 10% annual increase now, but I don't think we'll continue at that pace (though we may, as we're just starting the oil boom now). If we assume a 7% annual increase in housing prices, that's around $650K, and is still far lower than other major Canadian cities over the last little while. And that would still be a steal compared to other large Canadian cities. Does anyone have any predictions?

Jason: It sounds like you're from Calgary so you're quite biased. Housing a lot cheaper in Edmonton than Calgary, Edmonton's population is growing more quickly, and Calgary is losing white collar professional oil jobs through consolidation in the sector. Also, why are you here trolling an Edmonton real estate forum?

I think anyone in the Edmonton real estate market should be cautiously optimistic. Prices right now are ok, if the glass half full or empty right now is the question. I think that we are in the midst of an oil boom that will bring people from Southern Ontario. Having lived in both areas, I can safely say Edmonton is a better quality of living. The only thing that hurts real estate here is the frequent ups and downs. In time the economy in Edmonton will diversify with the green energy sector, it would be mind numbingly ignorant to bank on high oil prices to pay for your retirement, this has been the problem in Alberta all along and will change as opinions change.

Trevor: Absolutely agree. We really need to use this pending oil boom to get off of oil. We are making huge strides to transition to green energy through the new hydrogen plant that the provincial government just announced they're helping to fund. Not to be political, but it's clear that minimizing fossil fuel usage is a big deal when even the UCP and Jason Kenney are facilitating the transition. Plus all these new solar panel farms that are being built. Though government funding for the hydrogen plant is pragmatic, as if Trudeau follows through the the $170+ per tonne carbon tax he's promised if he gets re-elected, plus the clean fuel standard, it's unlikely that people will drive many ICE vehicles past 2030, unless they're wealthy.

It's great to see Edmonton finally on the path to higher home prices. And even if we climbed an additional 30% in price, we would still be one of the most affordable major cities in Canada relative to incomes. I think we're going to see some major interprovincial migration over the next few years as the jobs return to Edmonton. There unemployment rate is one of the highest in Canada currently, but I think we'll soon be leading Canada in job creation.

John: I think at the very least, we'll see house price gains of inflation, which is going to be fairly high. The cost to build, as well as salaries, will probably be increasing well above historical average, judging by the inflation rate and interest rates likely to stay fairly low. Just taking into account compounding inflation will be quite a large impact, even if it's technically not a 'real' increase. You probably also didn't think that we would increase 10% in the last year, where if you look up my comments, I predicted 10% annual price growth. And I'm predicting another 10% this next year, as the Bank of Canada won't increase rates in the next 12 months at least.

Tom,

How is possible go up, last 14 years done nothing, did we just create lots of jobs? There was crazy inflation last 14 yrs, just look at your grocery bill, hydro bill.
No Covid, real estate would be in the gutter, few realtors, spoke to. If you bought index funds, probably way ahead, which is sad.

Most parts of Canada, pre-covid price appreciation, 20-25 percent, why didn't we follow? A good example, Westmount house, selling spoke, 2 realtors, more active, price hasn't really moved. Huge disappoint, forced to keep, best case mortgage knock down, minimal rental cash flow.

I think we'll catch up soon. People are leaving Toronto and Vancouver once they want to settle down and buy a detached house.

Tom,

I'm not sure, properties you own, but why don't speak with realtor, find out what you can sell, commission, legal fees, repairs, holding period, 3 months, let me know if you are really ahead, unless you bought pre-2006.

Tom,

Like you said, "I think we'll catch up soon" , been waiting for a decade. I pray and hope you are right, heavily invested.

Tom,

You really think if and when people leaving Toronto and Vancouver, they will come to Edmonton???

Edmonton is probably at the bottom of the list, I would rather go to Calgary, at least it's warmer in the winter.

If I sell, I would get 100% return on m investment, use that to buy a house in Calgary at $100K cheaper than what I sell for in Calgary back in 2017 ish.

People actually move outside of GTA or outside Vancouver Area; not into Edmonton.

Tom,

You must be drinking too much kool-aid, since 2007, 14 yrs, besides university, Glenora, Crestwood, or top areas, lot splitting areas, most people negative appreciation, condos even worse. Most people, I know bought around $2009 are down, not sure how you came up with $540k single family. The biggest issue, prices doubled 2006-2007, killed any chance of normal market.

I know managers in city, hiring freeze for yrs with huge deficit probably getting rid of more workers now, not sure why you like government. Unless we can capture more tech companies, like what Calgary has done, diversify economy, not clean energy, we are probably not going to see much appreciation going forward.

Tom,

SO it's okay for you to compare Edmonton to Calgary, and said Calgary is not good here and there. But then you said people from outside Edmonton shouldn't be Trolling this forum. It makes you upset?

We are just trying to bring some insight from people that are actually living in Edmonton/Calgary before and now in Toronto.

Stop living in your dream, Edmonton RE is picking up, but it's nowhere near anything outside Alberta.

People like us have doubled their investment in 5 years, while you are losing your shirt in Edmonton. Sorry!

Jason: Not sure why you are so negative towards Edmonton, Everything is relative, and nothing is free. House prices may have climbed to crazy heights in Ontario, but that hurts affordability. It is a market no one wants to "buy" in. Ontario has had its time, and is a thing of the past for investors now. Alberta is better for investors because the market is still on the way up.

I am by no means an old-timer, but I have been in Ontario and felt like the place is worthless, and people in despair about finding a job, abandoned factories, out of work young people (15 years ago). I have also seen Alberta in a past oil boom that made anything seem possible. People were racing to renovate their basements to cash in.

We are now in a state of reversal where Ontario was on its high horse, and Alberta was in the pit. They are now about equal for opportunity, however I predict that in the next 5 years, Ontario will have trouble due to high gasoline prices and inflation. If interest rates go up, anyone who was just capable of buying an overpriced house in Ontario may risk losing it or bankruptcy if things take a crap turn.

Alberta on the other hand has gotten used to the new normal of crap turns and is considered low market compared to the rest of Canada, the risks that come with higher interest rates do not affect Alberta to the same degree. When gasoline prices are high in Alberta, it is okay, few people complain, because they know there is honey there too.