Weekly Market Update, Mar. 20/20

Wait, over 200 people bought a house recently? LOLOL. Dumb dumbs. Wait for the job losses and there will be SO many foreclosures next year at 40% less than prices now.

Tom, are you forgetting the 6 months, if really bad 1 year deferral of mortgage. Interest rates are so low now.

I think a lot of people will take far longer than six months to find a new job. I expect Alberta's unemployment rate to hit 20% later this year.

It will be magical if the housing support economy theory can last forever. It seems start from Margaret Thatcher.

Tom,

I agree that there will be huge job losses, but support will be coming. I still think if you have houses in the University, Westmount, Bonnie Doon, great mature neighbourhoods, you will still be fine. The key is need to buy in right areas now if prices are fires sales like you think they are. There will be still people with financial ability who were renting apartments, but now don't want to mix with lots of people in buildings, so they will buy. Right now who wouldn't want to rent main floor, basement suites over apartment buildings.

Those with dry powder will make a fortune after this is over.

I'd be shocked if the Alberta unemployment rate is _only_ 20% in 2 months when the temporary layoffs become permanent layoffs.

Re: Those with dry powder will make a fortune after this is over.

The central bankers take the opposite sides of trades that make sense that's why most people lose all their money. In other words anything that makes sense is a losing trade because the central bankers are on the other side of the trade and squeeze out everyone will all their money. Doing what people did in previous bear markets probably will be the road to ruin in this bear market. The boomers are nearly all retired and zero and negative interest rates will drain all their wealth. Few will have money and the rich will be the only ones left to pay all the taxes. Wealth taxes and socialism will come to America.

I look at thing differently. Before this crisis, it is 1 to 1, now may be 100 to 100. The ratio remains the same. Yes, sure, some may lose more and some less. The world economy remains the same, it is just shifted.

In both 2007-2008 and this 2020 crisis, I was lucky enough to pull out before the crisis, and are now sitting on Cash. tbh, you can see the writing on the wall long before this is coming. I feel bad for those investors that listen to the 'experts', don't sell, just sit and relax and ride the wave. The problem is after the wave, you find yourself in a DEEP BIG hole and it takes another 10 years before you come out.

If you buy real state to live, you will be fine. If you buy to invest, good luck. All in all, practice Social (physical) distancing and stay healthy. Like I told everyone here in the blog. I am retired long time ago, so I'm fine.

With all the money the governments are releasing to fight this virus, I cannot see the world avoiding inflation.
If you look at hyperinflations of the past, stocks and real estate kept pace with the runaway inflation, so may be a good place to park your money. Holding cash will wipe you out in a hyperinflation.

Hyperinflation generally occurs when countries hold large amounts of foreign denominated debt. This is likely why Lebanon defaulted two weeks ago. Hyperinflation requires hiking interest rates as a counterbalance and you should note that interest rates and money printing are both the tools of the central bank....

I still suspect the BoC will print less than the average wage earner makes. Thus, they cannot spend above their means. Therefore, commodities will fall in price leading to deflation. However, cost push stagflation may still be in the cards....

Cash is king for now, but the situation is dynamic. Stocks are still overvalued, bonds are all at risk for downgrades (and default) and real estate is still overvalued. Of course this is all my personal opinion...

Tony, your thoughts?

Poloz lowers the Bank of Canada rate to .25 percent rules out negative interest rates. Savers hit hard, daily interest rates will fall. Mortgage rates will likely fall further. Renters who don't pay their rent will be on the black list for life in Edmonton.