Weekly Market Update, Mar. 27/20

No one will be able to sell unless the buyer is paying all cash. The banks are closed, deals can be done via email and digital signatures. Real estate lawyers will still be hard to find.

I agree Tom. Banks are REALLY reducing their lending, as they are aware that MANY jobs are unstable and prone to layoffs. Talking to a few lenders and mortgage brokers you can likely forgot getting a mortgage if you work in anything other than government. So cash is king more than ever.

I don't know what to make of the real estate statistics. New listings have dropped 50% in 2 weeks. That is understandable. But sales are down only 5% from 2 weeks ago?

I don't know what to think either... typically at this time of year we'd see sales improving each week, so a 5% drop is more like 10 or 20%. There is also a bit of a delay between accepted offer and condition removal (when the sale is reported), so people who found the right place for them a week or two ago might very well decide to move ahead, while others would decide not to. It's basically been two weeks since this all went down so next week's sales will probably be even lower... we'll see.

I such time, people will recognize essentials are more important than luxuries.

I suspect we'll keep falling due to low WCS oil pricing and end the year at $325,000 average for a detached. No one is buying now, and some people NEED to sell, which will create crazy low comps.

Just feel the COVID-19 can be ended any time. This disaster is more or less caused by panic. Like Italian, hospitals actually becomes infection sources.

Listings are going to drop to almost zero for the next few weeks.
Who wants a stranger wandering through your house, touching things?

1. First COVID-19 death
A man in his 60s with underline conditions from the Edmonton becomes Alberta’s first fatal COVID-19 case.

2. Second COVID-19 death
The person who died was a woman in her 80s who was living in McKenzie Towne Continuing Care Centre in Calgary.

3. Third COVID-19 death
An 80-year-old Calgary woman has died from COVID-19.

Real estate prices in the Greater Toronto area are still moving sharply higher. Sales are not falling only inventory. The GTA will be the next California where no one can afford to buy or afford to rent.

After this, everyone who can, will opt for a SFH rather than a condo, where there are lots of doorknobs and elevator buttons to push just to get into your home. Not to mention the possibly diseased folks wandering all around coughing on everything.

I'm from Toronto, and I can tell you it's not business as usual. No open house, no showings if it is face to face. Therefore, many resort to Virtual Tour, Facetime etc.

However, the problem with that is as a real estate agent, you are supposed to know the clients well, at least to the point of meeting them face to face. I don't know what will happen if 2 years down the road, someone find out that the deal is bad, and the person you never met turned out to be someone else.

Most of the firm deals may not be firm after all, mortgage that was supposed to be approved is not approved anymore since you don't have a job. People back out the deal and don't sign the mutual release. Court may decide that it's an usual environment and may make a decision one way or another. REIT fails.

All in all, it is messy. Toronto and Vancouver may not be able to escape, They may actually fare a bit better.

Stay safe and keep yourself alive. Everything else is secondary.

Greater Toronto update for the month of March. Prices up 14 percent year over year to over $900,000 on average. Sales up 23 percent. Once the Covid19 scare is over prices in the GTA will go parabolic with 25 to 30 percent yearly increases as mortgage rates plummet once the liquidity crunch is over in a month or so. The GTA is the next California.

Business report: Toronto home sales up ahead of COVID-19 restrictions Youtube link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2iWPgxj_oI