If you sell it now you'll lose money. This kind of flip works well in a hot market like in BC or Ontario lately but not in Edmonton now so you have no choice but to wait until the next bubble in Alberta. I'm expecting the bubble in Alberta to start somewhere around 2030 and last for a few years like say from 2030 to 2033 or 2034. If you're young you have no problem waiting as eventually it will happen and after 2030 I can see the average detached in Edmonton pass the 1 million mark. Patience is key. After all isn't it a long term game?Posted by Wally on Friday, November 17th, 2017 at 1:41am
We just set a new price record for this time of year!
A couple months ago I bought a Stantec Condo in the Oilers' season ticket holders pre-sale. It is a little expensive relative to how much i could rent it out for I've decided, so I may flip it through an assignment. I can sometimes be too impulsive with my purchases lol. Sarah, is this something that you would be able to assist with? Let me know if you want me to contact you directly.
Million dollar mark in 2030 ? Well , with stagnant income , looming household debt , shrinking manufacturing and negative trade deficit it will definitely happen .Posted by Adndrii on Friday, November 17th, 2017 at 5:01am
A handful of pre-sell condos in GTA never get built. All those purchasers just get the deposit back while the market goes up.Posted by Jason (Toronto) on Friday, November 17th, 2017 at 10:14pm
Did the impossible happen? Removed 0 days on zolo.ca. Or is it going to come back as a relisting?
If it sold it's the first resale townhouse out of thousands I've seen, sold, in the last 4 months.
Resale apartments in Moncton, New Brunswick cost about double what resale apartments in Edmonton cost. Moncton is apparently the cheapest major city in all of Canada yet apartments cost double what they cost in Edmonton. It will be apartments that go up in price not detached houses in Edmonton if there's ever a boom again.Posted by Tony on Saturday, November 18th, 2017 at 1:31am
Hmmmm, true. Doing some calculations, housing prices only need to outperform inflation by 2% annually to be $900,000 by 2034 (only 16 years away, and assuming inflation is 2% a year).Posted by Tom on Saturday, November 18th, 2017 at 5:01am
Tom , I have no doubt that downtown condo will appreciate at least 4% annually , small problem with family income , census 2016 states " The median total income of Canadian households reached $70,336 in 2015, a 10.8 per cent increase from $63,457 in 2005 ". It gives us 1% growth of income with 2 % of inflation per year , In 2035 median household income will be 82 k . With such an income they will line up to buy your 900 k condo .Posted by Andrii on Saturday, November 18th, 2017 at 5:15am
Noop Tom , it gives 900k from 500k for 17 years with 4% annually , with 2 % just 700k .Posted by Andrii on Saturday, November 18th, 2017 at 5:40am
Get ready to lose 30-40k on that transaction Tom. And 2% real gain over the next decade or so on a high priced downtown Edmonton condo? Yikes. Theres not a lot of demand for high priced downtown Edmonton condos. Doesnt matter how many times you run into Mcdavid at Safeway.Posted by karl hungus on Saturday, November 18th, 2017 at 5:42am
That's exactly what I said. 2% inflation, and 2% on top of that as an actual investment return. For a total of 4% annually.Posted by Tom on Saturday, November 18th, 2017 at 6:27am
Tom I personally think your condo investment was a good one. I am no fan of condo's period unless they are concrete and steel and in the right location. Go with your gut feeling and forget about the future. If you can unload now and make a buck. Do it! There will always be more opportunities on the horizon.Posted by Ron on Sunday, November 19th, 2017 at 2:36am
I don't think you understand inflation. In 12 years even with inflation prices will be $600,000 (assuming around 2% inflation). And that's with no real return!Posted by Tom on Sunday, November 19th, 2017 at 2:39am
I'm curious why you're looking at Canadian income, and not Alberta which is much higher?
Much higher is 20 k ? Well , 105 k family of two income in 2034 for 900k one bedroom works better ?Posted by Andrii on Sunday, November 19th, 2017 at 5:23am
Having a beer or two and pizza watching Edmonton kick a field goal with a minute left when they needed a touchdown to tie the game... WTF !!
Anyways, talking to a guy who bought a condo near Pipers pub in SW Edmonton and paid 275K for it some years back. His condo fees are $550 a month.
Condo fees never go down.
nooooope. House today =$435k. @2% inflation, in 12 yrs it's worth $541k. Will take 17 yrs to make it to $600k. Unless you're talking specifically about your condo, as I have no idea what you paid for it. And that return doesn't include the cost of ownership. I'm not sure why you think you might make inflation = 2% (i.e. 4% return). Edmonton housing hasn't done that consistently since 2007. the odd year (2013-2014, yup), but overall the last decade has been pretty much sideways.
You might get lucky and find a good renter- worth testing the market for that product anyway. I happen to know of a downtown condo in a great location for sale right now in a desirable building that would be cashflow positive (barely). I know because I have a rental in the building already. I could buy it, but I'm not- Even though rent would cover interest, principle, condo fees, insurance, property tax, and even a small vacancy allowance, I don't see any capital appreciation in the near future. Real estate doesn't make a lot of investment sense unless valuations are increasing. Even if I thought I'd make 2-3% year price appreciation, I'd buy it. I don't see that coming, so I'm holding off.
There's better places to park capital right now- put it into a business of some sort, or invest it in something liquid. Lot easier than having a renter and barely squeaking out a profit. Just trying to be honest. I own a pile of RE and nothing short of a LottoMax win would make me wealthier than for housing prices to go on a run, but I don't see it in the cards right now. But Tom, I'm hoping you're right man!! If we got 4% appreciation every year, I'd be set up pretty damn sweet by 2030. Could retire on the Freedom 50 plan if that happened. Think i'll buy a few more LottoMax just in case though.
sorry should read inflation + 2%, not inflation = 2%Posted by Trev on Tuesday, November 21st, 2017 at 4:28am
Insane! We're starting the next boom early! Almost 7% GDP growth this year. I'm guessing 10% next year.
Tom , you forgot to mention one of key word of CBC BS "forecast " .Posted by Andrii on Tuesday, November 21st, 2017 at 10:42pm
WSN , you made my day , 90 % will be inherited ? How about 70 % house rich money poor in Canada ? They will pay proprietary tax from CPP and OAS on 1 mil house ? Nice future for seniors , forget about traveling , eat cat food and forget about to downsize and cash out your only house investment . Well , the last one about Hong Kong , London , New York , shortage of land was not original and does not worth even answer .Posted by Andrii on Tuesday, November 21st, 2017 at 11:11pm
Yes, we're forecast to grow at almost 7% according to the Conference Board of Canada.Posted by Tom on Wednesday, November 22nd, 2017 at 2:50am
Andrii, what are you even trying to say in your non-sensical post?Posted by Tom on Wednesday, November 22nd, 2017 at 2:52am
Tom, did you read the whole article? The forecast for 2018 is way down at 2.1% right behind BC.Posted by Wally on Wednesday, November 22nd, 2017 at 3:31am
It's true that wage growth is much slower than increase in house price. But who says a median income family must be able to afford a house?
Look at Vancouver, the median house income is much less than $105k and yet the house price is way more than $900k. We are not there yet, but given a very long time, we will be there.
It's all about supply and demand. The supply of land will diminish, either due to using up all land in a defined area (Vancouver), or using up all land that's a reasonable travel time from the city core (Toronto and, in the future, Edmonton). But there will always be some new demand.
Essentially, in the future, 90% of all houses will be inherited. 10% will be sold or inherited and then sold to the top income earners (i.e. those who earn $300k+ in today's dollars). So, it's OK that median income earners can never afford to buy a house and market will not crash.
Look at Vancouver. Look at Hongkong. Look at London.
Well Tom , it was for WSN , ask him to explain you his theory .Posted by Andrii on Thursday, November 23rd, 2017 at 12:17am