Weekly Market Update Nov.5/21

$20,000 drop in one month???

Great increase this year overall (at least for SFD). Sara, do you think that we'll see a hot winter of price gains as well, considering rates are expected to soon soar?

Jason: Yes, downtown Edmontom will be a ghost town until people head back to the office. It's the same as Toronto where most people aren't at the office, and rental rates are much lower than pre-Covid. No downtown business districts are doing well anywhere in North America, with business vacancies and bankruptcies soaring. Apparently Ottawa is very bad without federal workers. But Edmonton's downtown will boom again, likely next spring.

Just come back from Edmonton, stayed in JW Marriott, had a chance to visit Roger's Place, pretty awesome space but very quiet when there is no hockey game.

My limited impression is downtown Edmonton is very quiet, lots of empty shops, not much is happening around this ice district, lots of homeless people. Cruise around to Bonnie Doon, same thing except there is a LRT tracks. Area in North Edmonton is basically the same.

Overall, it seems to be worse than when I was there about 25 to 30 years ago.

I will be the first to admit that it is a very shallow observation, but when there is no traffic, I really don't see how business can survive.

I disagree with your statement about "anywhere in North America".
Florida, where there have been no covid vaccination mandates, no mask mandates, is booming like never before. Everywhere is alive with people enjoying their lives and vacancies for office space and apartments is lower than ever.
Things have never been better in Florida.

Funny how that works.

Sure, Florida is normal, if you ignore all the Covid deaths lol.

Downtown Toronto is doing well, mind you!

So is anywhere in GTA. We can basically tell how good the economy is by looking at the traffic at 401. Last year, 401 is so quiet, I can go from Mississauga to Markham in half an hour to 40 minutes top. Now, it takes at least an hour. Rush hour traffic is back everywhere!


So we are back before the COVID as far as economy is concerned. House Price, let's not even get into it.

The statistics say otherwise about downtown Toronto:

https://www.thestar.com/business/2021/11/10/new-data-shows-number-of-workers-in-financial-district-is-still-down-by-77-per-cent-and-experts-say-it-may-never-recover.html

And I know it's not a contest, since all downtowns have collapsed, but I have two condos in downtown Edmonton that I am about to sell, and the realtor says that he expects it to be very busy this winter. Have you seen the price of oil? And Alberta led all province in GDP growth this year, and will again next year, according to the major banks. Ontario will not do nearly as well according to predictions.

"Alberta was the lone exception. We kept our growth forecast in Alberta at 5.9 per cent,” RBC’s senior economist Robert Hogue said in an interview, adding he expects Alberta to be home to the fastest growing provincial economy this year, topping the national GDP estimate of 5.1 per cent. In 2022, RBC Economics projects 4.9 per cent real GDP growth in the province (4.3 per cent for Canada), and is on track to fully recover by that time."

https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/albertas-swagger-is-back-and-this-time-its-not-just-an-oil-led-boom

Funny you should mention that Tom.
Florida has the lowest number of covid cases of all 50 US states.
Funny how that works.

You believe their figures? Oh you poor, summer child.

Of course it is not a contest.

Sometimes I find those percentage growth misleading, a 10 % growth from a -10% last year is for sure less than a constant 3% last year and another 3% this year in real money term.

All I know is opportunity cost. In my case, Sold my house in Edmonton, move to Calgary and brought a similar house, price get doubled, sold it and move to Toronto, brought a new house at 40% more than what I sold in Calgary. That house is now doubled.

The house I brought in Edmonton is in Wedgewood area, that got doubled from low 200 (when I sold) to high 500 ish a year later, I don't know or care what it is worth today.

It's all about timing I guess.

Another interesting article about downtown foot traffic... doesn't mention Toronto but it seems Edmonton is fairing better than most: "Edmonton was fourth in return-to-office in North America behind only Calgary, Austin and Boston." Ottawa's foot traffic was down 87% compared to Edmonton at 53%.

https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/cell-phone-tracking-reveals-downtown-edmonton-half-as-busy-as-pre-covid-19-report-1.5661123