Weekly Market Update, Sep. 29/17

Thanks Sara!

Is there a way to know if the high SFH inventory is coming mainly from new homes or resales?

I understand it is a combination, but what is "mainly" driving it?

I'm curious where the listings will end up next fall when interest rate will be 1% higher and new B-20 implemented.....

Dude , I moved in Canada seven yeas ago , not typical immigrant (didn't settled in Toronto or Vancouver). How you didn't notice me ? Any numbers to support your theory ? How is real estate in India doing ? They have a huge Net population !

Not sure if trust this report. I think this following source is probably better than this and also the cmhc reports for Edmonton ... the boardwalk rental report! see how accurate their reporting is! I believe the market is tightening and worst could be behind us.

https://www.bwalk.com/en-CA/Investors/GetInvestorDocument/268

What is important is the Net population, which is growing (due to more birth and more international migration). We are getting more and more international migration as Alberta is getting more known. In the past a typical immigrant would only want to settle in Toronto or Vancouver (maybe Montreal too) but now I see many fresh ones (i.e. not coming from other parts of Canada).

Please check the Homes 4-week running average: $247k price. Maybe typo.

You're right, it should have said $427k, I've corrected that. Thanks :)

@Andrii

Indian real estate are doing better than great. Mumbai is probably more expensive than Vancouver. Take into account that their per-capita income is less than 5% of ours. That's how great it is in India.

Just wondering if those international migrants the Common Guy is betting on, will have the purchasing power that will actually impact Edmonton's real estate in the short term? In my understanding unless they come with the hard cash in their hands, it will take a while before they will settle and qualify for mortgages. They surely will be renting but what I hear from my friends who own rental properties, there are currently a lot of vacancies so it will not significantly improve the market.

Although we lost 5000 people to other provinces, we gained 10400 from international migration. The real question is who are we losing and what talent are what talent is migrating here. See link below to show outflow and inflow of people.
https://mobile.twitter.com/trevortombe/status/913207501046157312

Interest rates will probably be lower next fall than they are today. I just bough some 30 year Government of Canada bonds looking for capital gains in the next year to two years.

Note to self: Sell my properties in July.

Bangladesh has huge population growth. I don't see real estate prices booming there.

Garry , Alberta housing start 2016 24533 . Looks like we even have already two houses for each of them ! About talents , Gray paper recycling was one of them .

What a great place Mumbai . Why wouldn't you move there , you know how to push real estate mocking renters !

Can't not congratulate you , it was " smartest " purchase one could ever do after recent purchase 500 sq fit condo in downtown .

Andrii, seems you need to dig a little bit to find out what's going on. A lot of new houses being built are in fact replacing "old" ones. Not every new one is addition to the inventory.
And, more population (regardless of from where) means more demand for space, and simple economy means more demand is a driving force for more growth. It doesn't matter whether the "new comers" are renting or buying. They need a place to stay.
BTW, I have been in Edmonton long enough to notice the trend and change vs 7 years ago or 15 years ago.

How many was replaced ? You didn't provide any number , as well as me didn't provide provide how many talents moved by single , families of two , three and since this talents mostly moved not from Europe can easily be five and more . Keep on digging.

If any of them have the fortitude to actually get a job instead of going on the dole then it may impact the rental market when it comes to housing. That would marginally stem the fall in Edmonton housing prices.