Weekly Real Estate Market Update, April 28/17

Very good information about update on real estate market.

It seems like most houses in Westmount, Inglewood, University area are really hot. It seems like almost everything has a sold sign. Prices can only go up higher. I even see people in Vancouver writing offers, guess Edmonton is not a secret no more with one of the best university in Canada, ice district and brewery district.

It looks like if you want to accumulate wealth, have to buy can't rent.

Hi Tom,

I'm not a realtor, but have done okay in the last 5 years. I was able to buy a Westmount houses in the Groat estates 48' X 148', RF 3 zoning renovated house for around $325,000. The seller purchased that home 15 years ago for $100,000. If I count my equity, I have probably made around $150,000+. I own a couple of properties and the beauty is my tenants are paying my mortgage for me and after a couple of years, I can refinance. The problem with owning vs renting is the mortgage comes down, while the rents go up, historically, this will always be true.

Now the city is letting people split the lots, so they are essentially making owners, builders rich. I have got a list of what sold last year in Inglewood and you could have bought a 50' lot for around $250,000 and houses were around $325,000-$375,000. The sellers now are asking for so much, like a house on 127 street (not subdivision), renovated 1,110 sqft house and listed for $439,00 and saw a 60" lot for $380,000. It just shows you being a owner/landlord will always make more sense than renting. Where is the renter benefitting in all this?

All I hear is sad stories in Vancouver, Toronto, Seattle and around the world where rents are going up crazy. I'm thinking people in Vancouver, Toronto are probably realizing they will never own a house in the city and it will make more sense to come over here. That in turn will drive the real estate market especially the top end mature neighborhoods even higher.

Thanks Kenney. I'm thinking about buying a couple more investment properties. But I'm concerned that it will be difficult to find tenants with the high vacancy rate. Do you think that will improve? Have you had difficulty funding tenants, and have you had to cut rates much? Thanks!

How can you be so matter of fact? I don't have a crystal ball, but with the oil patch slump continuing and possible interest hikes on the horizon, prices being able to "only go up higher" is anything but certain.

Drop the rate by 25% to 30% and you will find tenants the next day, as simple as that.
Cash flow negative? So what. do you think all those who made money in real estate did so from renting out? Of course it is part of the game but the lottery eventually comes from price appreciation. look what happened in Vancouver and Toronto which are two big examples.
My advice to you is buy as many properties as you can before it's too late. the price will double in the next two to three years. The house that is $400k nowadays will be $800k in 2020.
Look at Kenny's examples where the prices went up by 25% to 50% in just one year and the economy is depressed. So when the economy picks up again what do you think is gonna happen? Big bubble.

Thanks Kenny. Are you a realtor around there? For what it's worth, with all the development and skyscrapers being built downtown, rivaling downtown's of other cities like Toronto and Vancouver in terms of development, I'm seeing every mature area start to heat up, especially the area's near the new Valley line LRT (eg. Strathearn, Holyrood, Bonnie Doon, and Forest Heights). But I'm seeing prices in the SW suburbs stagnate, and actually start to go down (probably due to too much development, and terrible commutes and traffic).

My advice for anyone looking for a house is to ensure you buy near a mature area close to downtown. I think you will see big time appreciation there, even if the overall market stagnates.

Fellas, please...I'd make a pile if RE doubled, cause I own ~150% of my net worth of the stuff, but you're just talking fantasy. Nobody's writing out of town offers on Edmonton property because we're "no longer a secret". Prices have been flat for ten years...we're still below the 2007 peak. After inflation, most people are even at best over the past decade.
The numbers are all against you- sales are down, listings up, DOM long, selling price (surprise!) stagnant again. Look to Teranet same house sales...we haven't moved an inch. Our downtown doesn't rival Vancouver or Toronto, and it never will. Smaller population, different demographics, and we're not the financial center of Canada.
World class University? Yep. Great place to live? Check. Value priced real estate? Definitely. But there's NOTHING in the stats here or elsewhere to suggest we're about to see major gains. Wish there was- I'd love to buy some more houses, but I can't justify it under current conditions. Don't need another decade of flat prices, poor cash flow, and renters beating the place up for little or no price appreciation. I know people who are hurting in this downturn- people that bought houses 3-4 years ago that are underwater and can't sell, living in a premium central neighborhood. This is a fact (although to be fair they are in a townhouse condo, not SFH).

I'd like to believe you- let me know if you see something I don't, please, but it looks to me like the market is in decline right now, not growth.

Hi Tom, finding tenants is not the hard part, it's how you deal with them. I treat being a landlord as babysitting. There is always going to be issues, like late rent and listening to their issues and problems. In all my years of being a landlord, I have always given an eviction notice to my tenants after the 4th month, that seems to be when tenants screw up. Even if I don't get my rent on the 1st, I will give my tenants time, but you got to be careful how much time. In the end, tenants are making you wealthy, so just need to know how to make it work. I like finding the diamonds in the rough, this way they will stick with you for life. If you find too good tenants, more turnover. Every month I always have that mind set that I won't get any rent and my place can be damaged, need bankroll. The beauty of land lording is if you can get past the first 2 years you are home free. With the mortgage knock down, appreciation of property and if you know what your doing by getting the property at a decent price, you might have gained $25,000-$40,000 equity.

Hi Wally,

I would never buy as much property as you can because you need a huge bankroll to do that. I think conservative is probably 1-2 years you can acquire another one. With the refinance, you can use that money to buy another one. The reason people fail is they over extend themselves.

@Tom

I see it exactly the other way around. The sudden construction boom in mature neighbourhoods are not buyer supported. Instead, it's small time builders who aren't able to qualify for an official builder in a new suburb area finding the lot split attractive (instead have having to build a big house on a full lot). Many of these infills don't have a buyer yet. Since infill has always been a much smaller market than new area, this sudden increase of inventory could only spell disaster. I won't touch anything infill in the next couple years.

There's absolutely zero backward looking data to support the kind of price increase trends Kenny is claiming. Look at teranet, which uses real data to track same-house sales. Edmonton has been stagnant for a decade, and in fact many people who have bought in that time frame are underwater when inflation is factored in. Yeah, some neighbourhoods have done better, but not the way you're talking. Do we have a world class university and one of the most livable cities in the world, with an amazing standard of living and plentiful opportunities even with the downturn? Yes!!! But "buying as many houses as you can" is not sound advice. It's speculation. And it may work. Or it may blow up in your face.

And where does your "I see people in Vancouver writing offers" info come from? What I see is more flat prices, weak sales, and normal listings. Hardly a booming market.

You can speculate all you want that the Vancouver/Toronto madness is coming to Edmonton, but what are you basing that speculation on? So far it hasn't, not even a tiny bit.

Kenny, how much percent your properties have appreciated from 5 years ago in Inglewood?

Sorry Kenny I mean Westmount and not Inglewood

T-Rev,

I'm not sure if you have been looking at the listings right now, but anything in the university, Westmount, Inglewood is really hot especially Strathcona, Garneau, Mckernan. Good luck finding anything for less than $450,000 for a decent 1200 sqft home. Prices are like $500,000+. Even Inglewood, builders are knocking down the 50' lot and building 2 skinnys and selling each one for $600,000+. I even see now $700,000. That $250,000 site, can now build 1.2 million+.

In Westmount near Groat estates, a house just sold for $500,000 and a brand new house just sold for over 1.1 million.

So many in fill houses that are around $750,000+ have sold signs on them. Builders are telling me it has been sold before being built. Profit margin is normally 20 percent gross, but if they get the lot cheaper, can be higher.

I can tell you buyers of new homes in new subdivisions probably not doing to well or condo buyer. That is why I will never buy a new house because no money there, dumb investment.

Obviously, prices that I bought in Westmount 5 years ago that appreciated rapidly won't happen going forward. Lots are like $450,000+ now. It was too cheap to begin with. Expect the 2-3 percent and steady income for years.

You are making it more complicated than it is.

No, it has nothing to do with weather, downtown or university.

It's supply of land, which Vancouver has 0 and Edmonton has a lot! (pun intended)

If the city stops making new ASPs and stops granting new land development permits, we will catch up to Vancouver in no time.

I also use Teranet as my main reference. If you look at even longer terms than 10 years, say, since 1999 (when data started to exist), Edmonton had the exact same gain as Toronto from 1999 to 2016.

It's just about timing, which is totally unpredictable.

Holy Crapola... oils back at $45

Hi Wally,

I would say around 35 percent. The awesome thing is I can construct 2 side by side duplexes and sell them for probably $500,000-$600,000 a side.

Pretty awesome, Kenny!

http://edmontonjournal.com/business/real-estate/edmonton-real-estate-sale-prices-continue-to-inch-upwards-condos-see-biggest-rise

You just need to be in the game. Pre 2005, average house prices was $225,000. Wages have definitely not kept up with house prices. Hindsight is 20/20, but houses long term have always gone up, so why not get in the game if you can. The awesome thing about houses is the leverage.

Kenny,

Rents don't always go up. I don't know about Edmonton, but they're WAY down in Calgary. If you can even find anyone to rent from you.