Weekly Real Estate Market Update, March 31/17

New all time record high for single detached homes! The next few years are my going to be bonkers.

Doesn't look like SFH have moved more then 10G in four years.

Agreed, it's been remarkable how resilient Edmonton's market has been with oil being worth so little. Most economists are calling for higher oil prices in the future, so housing prices should start taking off in the next few years as we enter the next boom. History repeats itself again and again.

THAN. Not then.

The next few years are definitely not going to be "bonkers". There's absolutely nothing to support boom-time price gains; government taxation and regulation are not favourable, neither is the price of oil or gas, and the regulatory framework on carbon is too volition and unknown right now for there to be any major investment like we've seen in the past. The only wells dug will be conventional, as it's "quick in quick out" and therefore minimizes speed-to-market risk. So yes, if oil continues to rise, we will see more conventional drilling up to a point. But it ain't gonna be bonkers.

Edmonton is entering a phase or economic stability. This is a very good thing, because it has been in free-fall for most of the past two years. Confidence will come back, and net in-migration will improve. Houses will not go down further; if you look at both Sarah's numbers and Teranet it looks like we lost 5% give it take on average over the downturn. Some houses, especially higher end places on the fringes of town, lost more; I'd wager as much as 10-15% of what they would have sold for peak. Some places, like SFH in Garneau, Glendora, or Windsor, probably went up. Your average shack somewhere along the Henday/bedroom communities, lost 3-5%. Bottom line is the trend down is done. And we're probably set for multi-year stagnation/inflation-paced gains in he overall market.

Oil isn't shooting to $100, or even $80. Every time it hits $50, the US shale producers crank up production because they can bring product to market almost instantly and make a great profit at that price. Prepare for years of $40-60 oil.

That said, I think there's still great opportunity in YEG, just not as a flipper. Re-development, either as in-fill, or major value-add renovation, may continue to show strength. If you are looking to move up, now is still the time to grab great deals above $750k. In fact, the higher the price, the better the deal right now, with the exception of a few premium neighbourhoods that haven't come down. There may be opportunity to make some cash flow neutral SFH rentals in another year or so IF the rental market comes back. I'm keeping my wallet in my pocket for another year or so until I see some improvement there. Only thing I'm interested in right now is potentially tear-downs in the right location. That market has become pretty saturated as well though, with limited product and lots of builders looking to buy it.

Anyway, as I've been saying: stability, stability, stability. Not all that different than the last ten years, but we've already moved past the "local minimum" for you math folks in the crowd.

SFH for a place to live if you can afford it, yes.

As an investment, no... there's a lot better returns on a lot less capital.

Sales down , price up , if it would be sold only one house for one mil in month , SFH price would be one mil in Edmonton . Funny thing is math , you should try .

The government could also "shut the door" completely on the Chinese which would have a ripple effect right across all of Canada. The only driver of real estate prices in B.C and Ontario are the Chinese. They bid up everything no matter how high the prices until it eventually goes bust. We'll see in the upcoming Ontario budget if they put some of the onus of the banks and bring in the foreigners' tax in Ontario or the GTA. It's supposed to be a 3 step or 3 phase hit. If it doesn't target the Chinese nothing will change.

@arfmoocat

Like SFH in Vancouver.

@Tony

If you actually own a house, you would know it's not about Chinese vs Canadians, instead, it's the rich vs the poor.

First, the housing price went up and up and up long before any Chinese purchase was even a factor. Check back what's price in 1945, if you will.

Second, people who already own houses (the majority) are actually happy that the price sky rocketed. But they would not say anything about it to avoid hatred. They just laugh all the way to the bank (secretly).

If you know what's going on in Toronto you'd know it's mostly Chinese buying everything at any price no matter what.
Only stupid people would be happy with sky rocketing pricing on a yearly basis.

The only big increase was in the mid 1970's (inflation spiked in 1973 to 1974) other than that home prices always significantly lagged the inflation rate every year until the first Chinese or Chinaman showed up in Agincourt a suburb of Scarborough, Ontario in the mid 1980's.